Posted Sep 5th 2008 3:07PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Conventions and conferences, Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Economic data, Federal Reserve

Amidst all of the talk of hockey moms, jabs at Democrat Barack Obama, and media bashing, there was not much discussion of the weak economy at this week's Republican National Convention.
In fact, the Republican gathering was notably short on talk of the main issue on the minds of voters. Sure, there was "drill baby drill," but is that really an economic policy? Can Americans drill their way out of the credit crisis? Can we drill our way out of the housing slump? Can we drill our way to prosperity?
No less of a flaming liberal than
CNBC's Larry Kudlow took note."As we head into the closing night in St. Paul, there has so far been no reference to the weak economy," Kudlow said on the network's blog before John McCain's acceptance speech last night. "There has been no economic-recovery message and no growth message."
Interestingly, the Republican platform contained language inserted by economic conservatives rejecting the Bush administration's rescue of Bear Stearns Cos., and possible bailouts of
Fannie Mae (NYSE:
FNM) and
Freddie Mac (NYSE:
FRE), according to
Bloomberg News. The document purposely did not mention the credit crunch because delegates were afraid that any solution that they would offer might make things worse, Bloomberg says. The GOP's embrace of free trade may sell well on Wall Street, but it won't win votes on Main Street where workers are fearful of their jobs being shipped to lower-cost countries overseas.
No wonder the GOP did not say much on the economy.
Most Americans are suffering because of high gas prices, a volatile stock market and plunging home prices. Though technically the economy may be strong and may not even be in a recession, most people and businesses believe they are worse off than they were a year ago.
Continue reading Why haven't the Republicans said much about the economy?
Posted Sep 3rd 2008 3:35PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Conventions and conferences, General Electric (GE), Time Warner (TWX), Marketing and advertising, News Corp'B' (NWS), Presidential elections

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is about to enter the "No Spin Zone."
The Illinois senator is due to be interviewed by Fox News' Bill O'Reilly, host of the "The O'Reilly Factor," on Thursday, the final night of The Republican National Convention,
according to TVNewser.com. I am sure executives at Fox parent company
News Corp. (NYSE:
NWS) were high-fiving each other when that interview was secured. The clash between the suave Obama and the bellicose O'Reilly will make for interesting television. It will be like a car accident on the highway that people can't help themselves from gawking at.
Maybe Obama views it as a chance to show his supporters that he is not afraid of O'Reilly, who is a pussy cat compared with Russian strongman Vladimir Putin. It's also
quite a contrast to the strategy of Republican John McCain, who is keeping the media at an arm's length. His campaign even canceled an interview the candidate had scheduled with CNN's Larry King because it did not like the
tough questions anchor Campbell Brown asked its spokesman about the qualifiicaitons of his running-mate Sarah Palin.
Both the Democratic and Republican conventions have been a dream come true for the cable news channels. More
people tuned into CNN, which is owned by
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:
TWX), for Obama's acceptance than for Fox, MSNBC and the broadcast networks. The address got more viewers than the American Idol final, the Oscars, or the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics.
Fox, though, continues to attract more viewers overall, especially during the Republican get-together in St. Paul.
General Electric Co.'s (NYSE:
GE) MSNBC is gaining viewers too, though some may be curious to see if its
feuding on-air personalities will break into a fist fight. All three of the cable news networks are raking in major bucks from those annoying 30-second TV spots that are an unfortunate part of American political life.
A winner has already emerged from the Obama-O'Reilly confrontation before a single punch has been thrown: News Corp. head Rupert Murdoch. The media baron lusts for the power to set the nation's political agenda. Come Thursday night, that's exactly what he will be able to do.
Posted Sep 3rd 2008 12:55PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Products and services, Starbucks (SBUX), Marketing and advertising, Economic data
Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:
SBUX), reeling from declining consumer spending, is betting that healthier breakfast items such as a
hard boiled egg platter will lure new customers. I wonder whether this gamble will pay off.
First of all, anyone who has eaten in a Starbucks can testify that food is not its forte. I just don't see people craving their morning Starbucks muffin. Plus, in places such as New York City, people have tons of breakfast options ranging from fast-food joints to delis to food trucks. They view Starbucks as a mid-afternoon indulgence. At least, that's how I thought of Starbucks when I worked in New York.
Getting people to change their breakfast habits will be difficult. In tight economic times, people will gulp down their morning meal at home. If they do eat out, they will look for cheaper alternatives than Starbucks. McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) has made serious inroads in the breakfast market, as has Dunkin' Donuts. Sorry, Starbucks lovers, but I found their coffee far less biter than Starbucks. I even have two bags of Dunkin' java (regular and decaffeinated) in my house.
Continue reading Starbucks gambles on healthier breakfast fare
Posted Sep 2nd 2008 4:57PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Products and services, General Motors (GM), Marketing and advertising
General Motors Corp. (NYSE:
GM) will offer customers wanting to buy its cars the same discounts as employees for another four weeks, according to
Bloomberg News.
The incentives, on most 2008 and some 2009 models, were to have expired today but, according to Bloomberg, "GM will continue the deals through the end of the month because the initial two-week offer boosted sales."
Of course, this is great news for consumers, particularly the few who are confident enough in their economic circumstances to be in the market for a new car. Maybe it will encourage people leaning toward a
Honda (NYSE:
HMC) or some other foreign automaker to give GM a second look or even a third one. Chances are, though, it won't do much to help.
As my colleague Michael Rainey noted earlier, imports accounted for 68% of all passenger car sales in the U.S., a new low for the Big Three. These are the vehicles that consumers stung by high gas prices are most interested in purchasing. Good luck in trading in your gas-guzzling SUV for a fuel-efficient hybrid. Many dealers are reportedly no longer interested in the big vehicles
because their trade-in value has plummeted.Continue reading General Motors to continue employee pricing
Posted Sep 2nd 2008 3:30PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Time Warner (TWX), Walt Disney (DIS), Viacom (VIA), Stocks to Buy

Ladies and gentleman, this fund investor grew tired of watching his family's portfolio get pummeled by double-digit percentage points and decided to become a stockholder. So, I snapped up a tiny position in
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:
DIS).
Before now, I avoided individual equities for several reasons, including that I was prohibited from owning them because of my previous job. I also felt uncomfortable owning stocks since I write about so many of them. My financial planner also discouraged us from taking positions in individual stocks, saying funds are a better way to go.
But after taking a quick look at my last brokerage statement, which showed my portfolio is down about 10 percent, I soon got over my unease. I realize that it's foolish to chase short-term gains but I thought something had to be done. One of the funds we owned seemed to be heavily weighted with gambling and leisure stocks, a sector that I don't expect to come back for a while. We got rid of it and added an ETF that covers the tech sector, which should be among the first to rebound once the economy starts to improve. Still, I wondered if I could do better.
Disney caught my eye a year ago when I labeled it a "slacker stock" because it was such an underachiever. The shares have barely budged this year, moving down about 3%, which in the current market is not bad. Moreover, Disney is outperforming peers such as Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) and Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), both of which are down double digits. The stock is trading at forward multiple of 13, which appears cheap to me considering it's lower than Time Warner and unlike Viacom pays a dividend.
Continue reading Why I took a chance on Disney
Posted Aug 22nd 2008 4:50PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Amazon.com (AMZN), Books
Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE:
BKS) surprised Wall Street today by
reporting quarterly earnings that did not suck as bad analysts expected, mainly because it was able to control costs. The question is whether this is sustainable.
Net income at the world's largest bookseller fell to $15.4 million, or 27 cents a share, from $18.05 million, or 26 cents, a year earlier. Sales dropped 1.6% to $1.2 billion from a year earlier when J.K. Rowling's
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows was flying off the shelves. Barnes & Noble store sales decreased 1.6% to $1.1 billion, with comparable store sales decreasing 4.7%. Barnes & Noble.com sales rose 3.6% to $99.8 million.
Excluding a one-time tax benefit, profit was 15 cents, five cents ahead of the 10-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. It was also higher than the company's guidance of 8 cents to 13 cents a share. Gross margins were stronger because of the greater utilization rates of its distribution centers and a lower markdown rate. Selling and administrative expenses fell in the quarter.
Of course, Barnes & Noble will continue to struggle as consumers cut back on their discretionary purchases. Moreover,
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:
AMZN) is not going anywhere soon. The company expects to lose 10 to 15 cents in the third quarter. It also lowered its full-year comparable same store sales guidance from "slightly negative to a decrease in the low single digits." The company is maintaining its full-year earnings guidance of $1.70 to $1.90.
At this rate, the company may be able to ride out the economic downturn until it can find a private equity buyer which is about the only hope for shareholders.
Posted Aug 22nd 2008 3:57PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Management, Goldman Sachs Group (GS)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:
GS) is cracking down on how its employees can waste their time while they are at work.
According to
Dealbreaker, the top investment bank has blocked Facebook and prohibits workers from posting comments on the snarky Web site. The incident is so noteworthy that the gossip blog has a flashing siren graphic above its post on the topic.
"I'm sure the lot of you are going to argue that the vast majority of financial firms have long blocked access to the social networking site, but Goldman's supposed to be
above such pedestrian measures," the blog says, adding that Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein used to not care about such things as "as long as you're kicking ass (by lying about level three assets)."
Fair enough but times are tough on Wall Street. Investment bankers are scrambling to hold onto their jobs as the credit crunch shows no signs of easing. Nannies who used to care for the children of Wall Streeters are finding t
hemselves unemployed. I am sure the strippers at New York's "gentlemen's clubs" are hurting too.
Even Goldman, the best run of any Wall Street bank, is not immune. Its shares are down more than 25 percent this year. Maybe Blankfein needs to remind Goldman's employees that they should be grateful to have jobs at a time when banks are laying off tens of thousands. They are plenty of eager people who could live without recreational Internet surfing who would love to take their place.
Posted Aug 21st 2008 5:25PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: International markets, Products and services, General Motors (GM), Oil

With great fanfare,
General Motors Co. (NYSE:
GM) announced it was spending $500 million developing the Chevrolet Cruze, a so-called next generation compact car. Investors, who have seen the value of GM's stock slip 60 percent this year, could not have cared less. Shares of the company, which for now is the largest automaker, closed down for the day.
Granted one car is not going to revive General Motors' fortunes, but the Chevrolet Cruze clearly is a step in the right direction. For one thing, it's got a nice design though it certainly did not blow me away. The automaker clearly is trying to build on the popularity of the Chevrolet Cobalt whose sales are up 16 percent year to date. It aso underscores how General Motors is trying to be more efficient.
"The Chevrolet Cruze was designed and engineered by our global teams in Europe and Asia Pacific and will be manufactured in those regions in addition to the assembly plant here in Lordstown, Ohio," said Chief Executive Rick Wagoner in a
press release. "Our goal for the Chevrolet Cruze is to lead in fuel economy in this very competitive car segment.
But it's also taking a gamble here.
As the
Wall Street Journal points out, "The auto maker believes growing demand for nicer, well-equipped small cars coupled with a dramatic redesign for the Cruze will be enough to command sticker prices well beyond the $15,000 base price of a compact Chevrolet Cobalt."
For Wagoner to keep his job, he's going to have to sell lots of them along with the company's pick-ups and SUVs, which the company and consumers are less enthused about.
Posted Aug 19th 2008 9:49AM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Deals, Rumors, Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Recession
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE:
LEH) Chief Executive Richard Fuld is running out of rabbits to pull out of his hat.
The troubled Wall Street bank, which reportedly is set to take a $4 billion write down in the third quarter, is desperate to raise capital.
The Wall Street Journal says it's shopping around its investment management business, which includes Neuberger Berman. During the second quarter, the business reported net revenue of $800 million, down from $1 billion a year earlier. Its assets under management were $277 billion. Though these results
were hardly spectacular, they stood in contrast to the Capital Markets business, which reported negative revenue of $2.4 billion.
Selling the asset management business would bring in between $8 billion and $10 billion, according to analysts cited by the
Journal. Lehman's market capitalization now stands at about $10.4 billion thanks to the 77% decline in the stock price this year.
"Any change in the unit's ownership structure would be bittersweet for Lehman," according to the
Journal. "The division has been a strong performer ever since Lehman bought it in 2003, holding up well despite the mortgage crisis. While a sale would give Lehman a cash infusion, the investment bank would lose a steady source of revenue."
Lehman acquired Neuberger for $2.6 billion in 2003, and some unhappy Neuberger executives are eager to dump their shares, the paper said.
Not all investors, however, believe that all hope is lost. Lehman's shares rose Friday on a report that billionaire
George Soros boosted his stake in the company.
If the sale goes through, there is no way that Lehman will be able to remain independent.
Posted Aug 18th 2008 3:56PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Other issues, Google (GOOG), Citigroup Inc. (C), Politics
As he prepares to accept the Democratic presidential nomination, Barack Obama's allies in organized labor are worried that he is becoming too friendly with Wall Street types such as former Treasury Secretary and current
Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE:
C) senior executive Robert Rubin.
According to Bloomberg News, a recent presentation by Richard Trumka of the AFL-CIO argued that unfettered global traded and inadequate government regulation resulted in lost manufacturing jobs. "It will do us little good if, when the next Democrat moves into the White House, Wall Street takes command of our country's economic policy," Bloomberg quotes Trumka's presentation as saying. The story adds that there is no doubt that Trumka is taking a shot at Rubin.
Trumka is unapologetic. The AFL-CIO already is flexing its political muscle and began looking at candidates for cabinet posts including the Treasury and Energy Departments along with the Federal Reserve. Obama's advisors deny that Rubin or anyone else has any particular sway over his economic policies. But there definitely is a tilt toward the center going on.
Continue reading Barack Obama makes organized labor nervous
Posted Aug 18th 2008 1:43PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Consumer experience, Television, Walt Disney (DIS), Film

Anyone looking for a reason to buy
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:
DIS) shares now has three: The Jonas Brothers.
Kevin, Joe and Nick Jonas are in the words of
Portfolio.com "poised to become a nine figure franchise" for the media company.
The biggest band few over the age of 15 care about recently released "A Little Bit Longer", their second for Disney's Hollywood Records. It immediately went platinum and then quickly became the most-downloaded album on iTunes, according to the magazine. Then there is the sold out tour, the book commemorating the sold-out tour and the 3D movie of said tour.
If that's not milking the franchise, I don't know what is.
The Jonas boys, who took in $12 million last year, also are wholesome enough to allay the concerns of parents worried about the recent R-rated behavior of Disney teen queen Miley Cyrus. She apparently is dating one of the Jonas boys, each of whom wears purity rings symbolizing their commitment to sexual abstinence. I know the Portfolio article specifies the identity of the brother but I have decided I have more important things to do than remember it.
Anyone like me who scoffs at the Jonas' bland of sweet inoffensive pop should remember that they are not the target audience. My niece Danielle, 12, is that audience. She thinks the Jonas' are the best thing since sliced bread -- make that bread itself. She has pictures of the Jonas' in her room including one she drew herself. Danielle is even trying to learn the guitar.
The Jonas Brothers. who play their own instruments, show no signs of slowing. For some handy Jonas figures
check this out. Disney will continue to profit from their success as it tries to duplicate it many times over.
Posted Aug 18th 2008 10:43AM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Earnings reports, Home Depot (HD), Lowe's Cos (LOW), Recession
Lowe's Cos. (NYSE:
LOW) shares are little changed after the second-largest home improvement retailer reported better-than-expected second quarter earnings. They still should be avoided.
Earnings fell 7.9% to $938 million, or 64 cents a share. Sales rose 2.4% to $14.5 billion, up from $14.2 billion in the second quarter of 2007. The results surpassed the 56-profit and $14.12 billion in revenue expected by Wall Street. Nonetheless, the company continues to face a tough slowdown and gave disappointing third quarter guidance.
"We are encouraged by our results and our continued market share gains, but the macro economic factors pressuring consumers and the ongoing challenges and uncertainty of the financial markets suggest a cautious sales forecast for the balance of fiscal 2008 is prudent," said Chief Executive Robert A. NIblock
in the earnings release.
Lowe's opened 23 new stores in the last quarter and expects to open 38 new stores during the current one. Is now really the right time to be adding so many new stores? There is a housing crisis, right? Square footage is expected to grow by 10%. The company is spending $34 million opening new locations.
Moreover, comparable same-store sales are expected to drop 5% to 7%, which
Bloomberg says is less than what some analysts forecast. Earnings per share will be 27 to 31 cents in the quarter versus 43 cents a year earlier. Analysts had expected 33 cents. Profit for the year is seen at $1.48 to $1.56. Wall Street consensus is for $1.50.
For now, investors would be wise to avoid Lowe's and
Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:
HD), which reports tomorrow, until the housing market rebounds. That won't be until next year at the earliest.
Posted Aug 14th 2008 5:20PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Earnings reports, Bad news, Merrill Lynch (MER)

In a move that underscores how badly things are going on Wall Street
, Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE:
MER) has announced a freeze on new hires through the end of the year.
The freeze, which excludes retail brokers, extends to previously budgeted posts as well as replacement hires, according to
Bloomberg News, which broke the story. Any exceptions to the policy need to be approved by a member of the management committee.
Merrill Chief Executive John Thain clearly is looking to save money; racking up $19 billion in losses will do that to a person. Though Thain has vowed to maintain the firm's dividend, options traders are betting that he will break his promise, according to a separate
Bloomberg account. Heck, anyone who can read a balance sheet has reached the same conclusion.
Thain has already eliminated 4,200 jobs this year, which he says will result in more than $900 million in annual savings, Bloomberg notes, adding that "Merrill slashed compensation and benefits, the firm's biggest expenses, by 20 percent this year to about $7.7 billion. Reducing headcount by attrition may be a cheaper way of cutting costs than mass layoffs."
Merrill has what investors like to call a "credibility problem," which is not getting resolved anytime soon. Holders of the stock, including one of my relatives who ignored my advice to dump it months ago, are in for a tough slog.
Headhunters of the world be prepared, your email in-boxes are about to overflow.
Posted Aug 14th 2008 2:56PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), Employees, Politics

The cold war between
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:
WMT) and the unions is heating up again.
Earlier this month, the
Wall Street Journal reported that the world's largest retailer had warned employees that a Democratic president would back the Employee Free Choice Act, a law that would make it easier for unions to organize workers, which the company opposes. The paper now is saying that the union groups have asked the Federal Election Commission to investigate the matter, which they claim violates federal law.
Of course, this is a brilliant public relations move by the unions. First of all, the FEC is as toothless as some Wal-Mart greeters. Even if the FEC finds that Wal-Mart broke the law, the worst that the company will get is a slap -- make that a tickle -- on the wrist. That may not even happen until well into an Obama administration, which brings up my next point.
Why is Wal-Mart set to pick a fight with the Democrats? Don't the folks in Bentonville read the political tea leaves? Odds are pretty good that the country will go Blue in a big way. Maybe the company is worried that the good times reflected in today's
results won't last.
Posted Aug 14th 2008 1:12PM by Jonathan Berr
Filed under: Rumors, Products and services, Employees, Gannett Co (GCI)

Back in the good 'ol days of say 2004,
Gannett Co. (NYSE:
GCI) was one of the few newspaper publishers Wall Street liked. Part of the reason was that many of the papers were in smaller cities such as Wilmington, Delaware, and Poughkeepsie, NY, where competition was not as great for advertisers. These days the publisher of
USA Today is up the creek with the rest of the industry.
With its shares down more than 50% this year, it should come as no surprise that Gannett is joining the ranks of publishers that are laying off staff. According to a memo leaked
to the unofficial Gannett blog, about 1,000 positions will be eliminated across Gannett's Community Publishing Division. Six hundred of those employees will lose their jobs, the memo says.
"Several GCI papers have already made recent job cuts, but at a higher rate: 5%," the blog says. "The division's dailies do not include
USA Today, suggesting that any further reductions at Gannett's flagship could be on top of the 1,000 jobs eliminated."
Gannett investors -- who must be the few, the proud like The Marines -- must have been expecting the move. Shares of the publisher have soared 10% in the past month. About the only relief they are going to get is through a takeover by private equity companies. The publicly traded media companies have no interest in buying into an industry whose best days are behind it.
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